I used to be quite the movie aficionado, before the internet came along. I recall driving an hour to see Crash – the weirdo David Lynch movie, not the lame-assed, heavy-handed, inexplicable Best Picture winner of a few years later. I rented the Red, White, Blue movies from that Polish director. (They sucked). I watched a lot of indie crap (and a lot of Parker Posey), occasionally finding a diamond in the rough like Shallow Grave or Walking and Talking. I didn’t give a shit about the Oscars.
But as I got older, the Oscars got releventer and releventer. That, or I got more interested as people started having Oscar parties. I enjoy occasions where alcohol flows liberally and people withhold judgment about what is acceptable behavior. (Although I wouldn’t recommend going to an Oscar party with film school students; I attended one such affair at USC in 2002 – the level of jargon used was bankerish. “The grip work on that tracking shot in Unforgiven was sooooo amazing.”) The last Oscar party I attended had only five guests; it was not a rousing affair. In 2010, I’m going to step things up by hosting my own Oscar party. Who am I inviting? Nobody, except Mr. Yellow Tail. And Mr. Computer. I had such an enjoyable time live blogging the Super Bowl I’m gonna do the same thing for the Academy Awards. Also, it’s much easier than just thinking up a real topic for a post. Plus it will allow me to spend some time trend-following on Twitter. Exciting.
In advance of that, here’s who/what I think will win the major awards. I’ve seen most of the contenders with the exception of Precious – I’m saving that for a time when I find myself in a suicidal or homicidal mood, seems like it’s a real hoot – so I’m more than qualified for this. That said, I think most of the big awards are pretty much locks, shouldn’t be much drama. Unless Christina Hendrick decides to wear a halter top.
(I will also include Entertainment Weekly’s projection based on their insider information and shit – that’s called adding some fucking value.)
Best Supporting Actress
I say: Monique. Awards always favor one word artists: Cher, Madonna, CarrotTop, Snow, Houdini, Fabio, the list is practically endless. Wait, she spells it Mo’Nique? WTF…
EW said: Mo’Nique, in a walkover.
Best Supporting Actor
I say: Christoph Waltz. He was delightful as the Nazi with the heart of gold. (I still don’t understand how that movie ended though – those Basterds didn’t so much kick ass as accept a resignation.) Also, what’s up with no “er” on the end of his name? These Best Supportings have some weird first names.
EW said: Waltz, in a waltz. (Wordplay.)
I say: Sandra Bullock. I haven’t seen The Blind Side, but I did read Liar’s Poker and I do wish the Niners had drafted Michael Oher, so I have a good feel for it. (It’s the touching story of how some kindly Ole Miss boosters took in a gigantic homeless kid and paved the way for him to eventually attend Ole Miss and, shockingly, play football there.) This is a lifetime achievement award for Bullock; she also probably benefits from Streep fatigue here.
EW said: Bullock, by a nose.
I say: Jeff Bridges. I haven’t seen Crazy Heart, but apparently it’s a virtual clone of The Wrestler, right down to the lead actor deserving some major awards. Bridges has none of the personal legacy issues Rourke had and will finally score some gold man group. Bridesmaid no more. Did you know he was nominated for Best Actor for Starman? Seriously? Wow.
EW said: Bridges, huge. (I guess I’m just regurgitating their picks, but like I said, most of these are no-brainers.)
Best Adapted Screenplay
I say: Up In The Air. Everybody loves this movie, but it’s not gonna win many awards given the other powerhouses this year. So it’ll grab the adapted screenplay consolation prize. (I’m looking forward to seeing this movie without jackasses talking throughout; still bitter about that experience. Went to see Avatar last week in Florida, and there was another family talking throughout. I hate people.)
EW said: Up In The Air, landslide
Best Original Screenplay
I say: Inglourious Basterds. Cineastes love them some QT, it’s been 15 years since he won the screenplay award for Pulp Fiction. He’s due. Although I’m still pissed about that movie – it should’ve been called That One Girl The Nazis Didn’t Kill, The Suave Nazi and The Nazi War Hero.
EW said: The Hurt Locker by a small margin. (See, I’m not all chalk.)
I say: Kathryn Bigelow. She’s actually made a bunch of awesome movies, she’s due for some recognition and The Hurt Locker was the shit. Would be pretty sweet for her to be the first female to win Best Director and to beat her ex-husband, James Cameron, for the award. It’s all happening.
EW said: Bigelow over Cameron, pretty close though.
I say: The Hurt Locker. I finally saw Avatar last week and was pleasantly surprised (expectations were low). But I can’t believe that it’s gonna overtake THL. Too intense, too well-acted, too topical, too awesome.
EW said: The Hurt Locker, close.
Special bonus investment advice: Don’t short Apple. Ever.
I will be live-blogging this bitch on Sunday,